Green Bay and Houston in Super Bowl XLVII. That's my prediction, and I promise to stick with it until I'm wholly embarrassed by one or both teams.
If recent history is any judge, it might not take long. Last year I renounced picking the Philadelphia Eagles to win it all before November arrived.
But sometimes that's just how it works with my annual Backward Logic NFL Prediction -- I try to eliminate everybody, and the two teams with the fewest reasons to be dismissed are my Super Bowl survivors.
As usual, I've weeded out teams that don't have top-12 quarterbacks, defensive playmakers or good trend lines, and here's the process of 30-team elimination ...
The 49ers are just barely out of my Super Bowl consideration because, in retrospect, maybe last year was when it all lined up for them ... and they were a close miss.
Can everything that went right for Jim Harbaugh's crew in 2011 go so smoothly in 2012? The 49ers are immensely talented, but injuries and bad breaks have a way of evening out from year to year.
So I'm going to skip ahead to 2013 for any 49ers Super Bowl prophesizing.
And the Raiders are interesting, but they're not nearly deep enough to be in this discussion, and probably won't get near it for a couple more years.
Philadelphia is out because the Eagles are still under prediction probation for the ridiculous giveaways last year; and I just don't see Michael Vick staying healthy for even
half a season.The defending champion Giants are out because it's almost impossible to repeat a Super Bowl title these days after all the energy exerted to get to that mountaintop.
New England, last year's runner-up, is out because no Super Bowl loser has gotten back to the big game the next season since Buffalo did it almost 20 years ago.
Meanwhile, Pittsburgh and Baltimore qualify in almost all categories -- good quarterbacks, rough defenses, future Hall of Famers, right on the brink in recent years.
But I'm eliminating both because some of their greatest players (Troy Polamalu, Ray Lewis, Ed Reed) are getting a little old and dinged up for this young man's game.
New Orleans is a scary team, and I think Drew Brees will be the MVP. Yet I'm eliminating the Saints because of the tumult caused by coach Sean Payton's season-long Bounty-gate suspension.
Denver also is a scary team if Peyton Manning can get through the entire season, but the Broncos are out because I don't think that's going to happen with Peyton.
I'm bouncing Dallas and San Diego strictly because of their coaches -- Dallas' Jason Garrett seems jumpy, and San Diego's Norv Turner is and shall forever be limited by his Norv Turner-ness.
The New York Jets, Cincinnati Bengals, Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears are out because they all have the tendency to self-destruct at the wrong moments.
Atlanta, Buffalo, Kansas City, and Seattle are interesting for various reasons, but they are eliminated because they either are not quite ready or just not balanced enough to make the deep run.
Indianapolis, even with Andrew Luck, is out because Luck won't carry the Colts into Super Bowl contention for another few years. The same thing goes for Washington and Robert Griffin III.
Carolina, Jacksonville, Minnesota, Tennessee and St. Louis probably are on upward trends, but they all have a long way to go.
Miami, Arizona, Cleveland and Tampa Bay are out, out, out, out, and happen to be the four worst teams in the league.
OK, I've just eliminated 30 teams. Let's focus on the final two, and pick a winner ...
The QB question: Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers is just 28, was the MVP last season and won the Super Bowl two years ago, which is a fine formula for another title this year.
And Houston's Matt Schaub might have an Eli Manning thing going -- Schaub has been good for a while, and he could be revelatory when it counts.
Defensive playmakers: Houston has one of the league's best defenses, and the Packers have re stocked after last season's dive and still have a lot of the guys from the championship drive two years ago.
Trend line: It's hard to go wrong picking two explosive teams with chips on their shoulders.
Last year, Houston might have blitzed all AFC foes if Schaub had been healthy for the playoffs; and Green Bay went weirdly flat after a 15-1 regular-season charge.
Super Bowl prediction: Green Bay over Houston, with lots of points on the board and Rodgers taking a big step toward a spot in Canton.
Read Tim Kawakami's Talking Points blog at blogs.mercurynews.com/kawakami. Contact him at tkawakami@mercurynews.com.
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