CORPUS CHRISTI â€" The Houston Texans have lost LB/DE Mario Williams, LB DeMeco Ryans, RT Eric Winston, RG Mike Brisiel, TE Joel Dreessen, CB Jason Allen, FB Lawrence Vickers and QB Matt Leinart by way of outright free agency, release and trade during an off-season that seems to be sending the wrong message to fans after the team finally broke through with an inspiring season in which they captured their first-ever AFC South title and a playoff win to boot.
Of those names above, four were starters, three were regulars and no one cared about Matt Leinart. In all, that’s a big group of losses to take. The only additions that have been made, on top of re-signing RB Arian Foster and C Chris Myers, is the signing of free agent punter Donnie Jones and linebacker Bradie James, a 9-year vet from Dallas.
The actions above have some believing that the Texans are going to sink in 2012, but to assume that before the NFL Draft later this month would be a fool’s move. The losses the Texans have suffered this off-season are many, but I think the shock value of the names lost is far more severe than the actual impact they’ll have. Mario Williams only played five games, DeMeco clearly didn’t fit in the Wade Phillips 3-4, Brisiel was nice but nowhere near irreplaceable, there’s a million Jason Allens walking the wire and Vickers, while a stout run blocker, was really only there to fill-in for James Casey, who the team may push back into the tight end role if they can find a fullback worth drafting and a fullback worth signing.
The biggest loss is Eric Winston, a cap-casualty whose loss on the offensive line could be a massive disruption in the long-term if the team doesn’t find the right guy to replace him. Winston was a stalwart on the line; an anchor who didn’t miss a game in five years and was the model for consistency.
The loss of Winston will add priority to acquiring line help in the draft, but the priorities still remain: wide receiver, offensive tackle, linebacker, center or guard and fullback. It wouldn’t stun me if, in the later rounds, the Texans select a tight end, a project running back or a project quarterback. With an additional fourth rounder in tow thanks to the DeMeco Ryans trade, expect the Texans to address depth issues while still acquiring a project or two to develop for the future.
The Texans won’t pick until the 26th selection comes up in the first round, so many of the Draft’s elite receiving prospects should be long gone by the time Houston pops up. So if you’re a Texans fan and you have dreams of seeing Oklahoma State’s Justin Blackmon, Notre Dame’s Michael Floyd or Baylor’s Kendall Wright holding up a new Nike Texans jersey â€" dream on.
That doesn’t necessarily mean the talent is gone â€" far from it â€" but it does mean that wide receiver shouldn’t be considered a slam dunk as a first round pick. One receiver to look for at number 26 will be Georgia Tech’s Stephen Hill, who is everything the Texans want â€" tall (6’4â€), fast (4.36 in the 40), and extremely athletic with elite leaping ability. A lot of mocks have the Texans taking Hill or Wright, who some believe could fall to Houston. I don’t see it, but I wouldn’t rule it out or be too upset about it. That said, I love Hill’s potential. He’ll need to be worked and molded, but his size, speed and natural ability is scary fun to imagine opposite Andre Johnson.
At linebacker, the Texans will be looking to replace the holes left by Williams and Ryans, but don’t let that statement fool you. The Texans don’t expect whoever they pick to replicate the reputations of Mario and DeMeco, but rather to simply provide what they got from those positions and players last season.
LB Bruce Irvin of West Virginia is a prototypical Texans defensive pick: 6-foot-3, 245 pounds, good defensive instincts, above-average ability to get around one-on-one coverage and explosiveness coming off the edge. If he gets around his man and has a path to the quarterback, it could get ugly quick for whoever stands in Irvin’s way. In my opinion, not enough is made about Irvin. I’m also interested in North Carolina’s Zach Brown, Nebraska’s Lavonte David and Miami’s Sean Spence. All three are great athletes, with elite football instincts and high-energy motors. Irvin also makes sense because, more so than defensive ends Whitney Mercilus (Illinois), Andre Branch (Clemson) or Nick Perry (USC), each of whom have been matched with Houston in recent mocks, Irvin stands to be a guy the Texans can wait until the second or maybe even the third round to get. I don’t rule out the Texans trading down for more picks if the draft takes a compelling turn, but assuming they don’t, Irvin makes the most sense in the second round if Houston goes defense. I’d also like Boise State LB Shea McClellin if he was available at 58, but with his stock rising, I don’t think he will be.
If the Texans go offense in the second round, it’ll be on the line and I can see a few scenarios in that instance. The Texans will be operating with the 58th overall pick in the second round, so guys like T Jonathan Martin (Stanford) and T Mike Adams (Ohio State) most likely will be gone. If they aren’t, the Texans would probably rate them higher than any defensive player, so that would be a fortunate turn of events. But it’s likely that they won’t be, and operating under that assumption, I think the Texans would be fortunate to pick up a guy like T Zebrie Sanders from Florida State. None of his talents grade as elite, but he’s quick, has good footwork and seems like a good fit in Houston’s zone blocking scheme, where you don’t have to be great to do great things.
The third and fourth rounds are great sleeper rounds for underestimated players. The Texans still need a lot of depth in positions like Center, Right Guard, Fullback, Defensive End, Inside Linebacker and Safety, so look for them to take the highest rated guy at one of those positions. G Brandon Washington (Miami), G/C Lucas Nix (Pittsburgh), DE Tyrone Crawford (Boise State), DE Jake Bequette (Arkansas), LB Demario Davis (Arkansas State) and S Markelle Martin (Oklahoma State) are all big board possibilities, as well as guys who seem to really fit the Texans mold of player.
In rounds 4 through 7, the Texans will have 5 picks (99, 121, 161, 195, 233), and will likely be focusing on additional offensive line depth, as well as projects or “hybrid†players, as well as special teams anchors and, perhaps even a kicker if they don’t bring back K Neil Rackers. 5th round will be huge for fullbacks and I expect that the Texans will either take a good, hard look at Temple FB Evan Rodriguez or Clemson FB Chad Diehl. Beyond that, I see Houston going for “best player availableâ€, with maybe/possibly/definitely a tight end thrown in there somewhere. I went into the off-season thinking a quarterback would be get drafted, too, but it doesn’t seem to make a whole lot of sense to waste a pick on one with Yates already onboard and a desire to put a veteran in that third spot. They’ll probably sign an undrafted one, if any stand out, but I no longer consider QB something the Texans will consider using a pick on.
I will say though, that if Houston QB Case Keenum goes undrafted, I see a lot of potential there. Even if it isn’t the Texans, I can see him being more than just another Chase Daniel.
It’ll be an interesting draft for the Texans, who need to fill holes and could also draft with an aim to push out another veteran. The team has $3.5 million under the cap as we speak, which isn’t a ton of money to fill out the rest of the roster after rookie signings and such. I don’t anticipate a whole lot of surprises during the draft’s three days so far as the Texans are concerned, but a trade down is a possibility if both Kendall Wright AND Stephen Hill are gone when 26 comes up. It’s great news for the Texans to not have to draft guys who will have to start from day one, but depth is huge, so you still can’t afford duds. Here’s hoping the Texans nab a few gems.
HOUSTON TEXANS 2012 PICKS
NFL Draft is April 26 (first round), April 27 (2nd and 3rd rounds) and April 28 (4th-7th rounds)
First Round - 26th overall
Second Round - 58th
Third Round - 76th
Fourth Round - 99th and 121st
Fifth Round - 161st
Sixth Round - 195th
Seventh Round - 233rd
No comments:
Post a Comment