By: Tony Meale
Quarterback: For a guy with a winning record in the postseason (4-3) and a 48-23 (.676) record overall, Joe Flacco doesn’t get the respect he deserves. He did complete only 57 percent of his passes this season â€" the first time he has fallen below 60 percent in his career â€" but he did beat Pittsburgh twice and helped the Ravens go undefeated against the AFC North. Rookie T.J. Yates, meanwhile, has been extremely solid for a guy who began the year third on Houston’s depth chart. Andre Johnson is healthy once more, but one must question how Yates will fare against a stout Ravens squad that finished third in the league in total defense.
Advantage: Ravens
Running Backs: Ray Rice was the best back in football this year. He finished with 2,000+ yards, 15 total touchdowns and caught 76 balls. Foster, of course, wasn’t too shabby himself. Despite missing three games with hamstring issues, he tallied 1,800+ total yards and 12 touchdowns. He also went for 182 and two touchdowns against the Bengals this past weekend. In the battle of back-ups, Ben Tate offers more upside than Ricky Williams, but make no mistake: This is a marquee match-up of the two best backs still alive in the playoffs. Looking at the regular-season meeting â€" Baltimore won 29-14 at home on Oct. 16 â€" Rice had the better day, finishing with 28 touches for 161 yards; Foster had 21 touches for 101 yards, but he averaged only 3.3 yards per carry.
Slight Advantage: Ravens
Wide Receivers and Tight Ends: Andre Johnson, who caught five balls for 90 yards against Cincinnati, including a 40-yard touchdown reception that more or less iced the game, is back to 100 percent â€" and if he’s not, he sure looks like he is. Owen Daniels, on the other hand (no pun intended), already hampered by a knee injury, reportedly broke a bone in his hand against Cincy and is questionable for this weekend. Either way, Daniels hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 4. As for the Ravens, Anquan Boldin returns from knee surgery that forced him to miss the final two games of the regular season, and rookie Torrey Smith should benefit as a result. Smith had just seven catches for 71 yards in those two games without Boldin, as compared to 11 catches for 125 yards and two scores in his two previous games in which Boldin played. Tight end Ed Dickson, meanwhile, has touchdown receptions in two of Baltimore’s last three.
Advantage: Ravens
Defense: Houston and Baltimore finished second and third, respectively, in the NFL in total defense this season, and both teams are loaded with playmakers â€" Brian Cushing, Connor Barin, J.J. Watt and Johnathan Joseph for the Texans; Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Terrell Suggs and Haloti Ngata for the Ravens. Both defenses fared well during the regular-season meeting. Houston forced two turnovers, scored a touchdown on a recovered fumble and stiffened up in â€" or near â€" the red zone, forcing five Ravens field goals. Baltimore’s defense, however, was better, limiting Houston to 293 total yards â€" and that was against Matt Schaub, not a rookie quarterback.
Advantage: Ravens
Special Teams: Neither team has a bona fide, don’t-kick-to-him burner a la Devin Hester (then again, most teams don’t), but remember that Neil Rackers has spent every home game since 2003 kicking for Arizona and Houston. Something tells me the weather conditions will be a little more blustery in Baltimore than Rackers has grown accustomed to. In addition, Billy Cundiff appears to have put his nagging calf injury behind him.
Advantage: Ravens
Bottom Line: The Ravens beat Houston by two scores in Week 6 despite neither forcing a single turnover nor throwing for a single touchdown. They stalled on offense repeatedly â€" settled for five field goals â€" and they also allowed a defensive touchdown. In other words, they played one of their worst games of the year â€" and again, they still won by two scores. This Ravens team is too hungry, too fresh, too tough-minded to lose this game at home to a team with a rookie quarterback. Ray Rice will get 25-30 touches, and Joe Flacco will make enough plays through the air to get to the AFC Championship for the second time in his career.
Prediction: Ravens 24, Texans 10
Tony Meale is a freelance writer for MLB.com, cincinnati.com and ffjungle.com. His fantasy football work has led to guest appearances on ESPN Radio and Sirius Radio. Follow Tony @tonymeale.
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