Houston Texans: Stat Predictions for Matt Schaub in 2012 - Bleacher Report

The starting quarterback for the Houston Texans must be facing the prospects of the 2012 NFL season with a sense of wonder. For example: 

“I wonder if Antoine Caldwell and Rashad Butler will protect my right side as well as Mike Brisiel and Eric Winston?” 

“I wonder if Andre Johnson has completely recovered from those two torn hamstrings?” 

“I wonder if any of our free-agent or draft-pick wideouts will step up?” 

“I wonder if my right foot is going to hold up for all 16 games?” 

“I wonder if I will play well enough this year to shut people up once and for all!” 

The ultimate response to his final “wonderment” can only be answered by what shows on the scoreboard. Whenever Schaub has thrown for a bunch of yards in the past, many of them have been gained in desperation. 

In 2011, sharing the same locker room with an actual NFL-caliber defense kept him from having to pull games out strictly with his arm. Yet, he was still on pace for a 4,000-yard season over 16 games. 

What effect will the loss of Joel Dreessen and the release of Jacoby Jones have on the Texans' passing offense? James Casey has all the tools to pick up the slack left by Dreessen’s free-agent signing with Denver. 

Jones was counted on to be a deep threat and failed to deliver with any consistency. In 2011, he was not even ranked among the top 100 in the wide receiver deep passing rating by Pro Football Focus. 

Lestar Jean, DeVier Posey and Keshawn Martin are competing to replace him. At least one of this trio of untested trainees has to come through in a significant way.   

With all the other weapons at his command, the numbers posted for Schaub in my "Stat Predictions for Key Offensive Players" seemed achievable. That is, until I attended their afternoon training camp practice of July 28th.  

Now, it was nothing more than a non-contact run-through. The coaches were rotating every player on the roster in and out. Some were 11-on-11, some 7-on-7. Some involved the offense going up against a dummy defense made up of offensive players and the defense doing the same. However, one thing stood out. 

J.J. Watt was having his way with the right side of the Texans' offensive line, no matter whom they put out there. I know it was just a run-through, but it took me on a trip to "what if" land. 

What if the Caldwell-Butler experiment fails to yield the intended results? What if that side of the line proves vulnerable, and there's no experienced fullback to pick up the blitz? 

Gary Kubiak loves to put Arian Foster out in the flat so he can juke some overmatched cornerback or linebacker out of his Nikes. What if Foster’s strictly average blocking ability is also out of the picture in this scenario? 

The first-string QB of the Texans has only slightly better mobility than Stephen Hawking. Potential All-Pro LT Duane Brown and the two guys next to him can only block their side of the field. What if the other side turns into an open gate with a welcome mat? 

And now we hear Andre Johnson tweaked his groin (via John McClain, Ultimate Texans blog/Houston Chronicle) during Sunday morning’s practice? At the very least, he will probably sit out a couple of days as a precaution. 

So IF Matt plays all 16 games, IF Andre Johnson plays in 12-14 of them himself and IF Schaub will not have to constantly roll left to keep from getting destroyed, my revised predictions for No. 8 are as follows: 

Passing yards: 4,075

Touchdowns: 29

Interceptions: 15

Completion percentage: 65 percent

Yard per attempt: 8.3

Rating: 99.0 (based on 325 completions out of 490 attempts)

This would represent a stat line on par with the 10 games he racked up in 2011. A repeat performance over the complete 2012 NFL schedule could mean playing well into January and beyond.