Mark Travis plans to attend the School of Journalism and Communication at the University or Oregon in the fall of 2012. Travis was born and raised in Corpus Christi and graduated with honors from Flour Bluff High School. He says he is one of the few Lakers fans who recognizes that LeBron James is better than Kobe Bryant. Travis started writing back in 2008, when Michael Crabtree and the Texas Tech Red Raiders inspired him to start But The Game Is On Sports Network, which features websites dedicated to covering the NBA, NFL, MLB, and NHL as well as college basketball and football. Travis contributes to all sites across his network. You can read the rest of his NBA writing at The Chase-Down Block. You can follow him on Twitter @Mark_Travis.
CORPUS CHRISTI â€" As I alluded to in my preview of their offensive line, I think the Houston Texans made a mistake by giving Arian Foster such a huge extension this off-season. This opinion has little to do with Foster himself - he's a very good one-cut back that brings a ton of value to the team not only as a runner but also as a pass catcher.
But no matter how good Foster has been over the past two seasons, these facts remain: 1) Modern day running backs rarely last much longer than a few years and Foster, who is entering his fourth season in the league, is now signed for five more seasons, and the odds of him playing at this level for that long is pretty much none, 2) Houston's offensive line, which lost two key parts this off-season because of Foster's deal, has proven able to make 1,000-yard rushers out of any moderately talented back (see: Slaton, Steve), which makes Foster less valuable to this team at least, and 3) Ben Tate looked like more than a moderately talented back last season he put up nearly 1,000 yards as backup, so he would have been a fine replacement for Foster. All of this on top of the fact that Foster was a restricted free agent and that Houston had no reason at all to make him the offer they did.
We've seen this story before from Terrell Davis, who was the 196th pick in 1995 and ran behind an Alex Gibbs offensive line in Denver to two Super Bowl wins and more than 2,000 yards in 1998. If it all goes well, Foster will put together another 1,000+ yard season and it will appear as if he's justifying his massive deal. But if Foster ends up going down, which is what happened to Davis the year after he got a massive extension that Denver's zone blocking scheme earned him, and Tate ends up being Olandis Gary, who rushed for 1,159 yards the year Davis went down, and then Houston finds another undrafted free agent like Mike Anderson, who rushed for 1,487 yards the season after Davis tore his ACL, then I think we'll know whether or not Houston's deal for Foster is money well spent.
How much of a tangible effect will that deal have on the Texans this season? Perhaps none at all. Houston still has a stud left tackle and the best center in the league and their zone blocking scheme should help their new pieces ease into their roles even if they aren't very talented players. And the Texans have a ton of talent at the defensive end and outside linebacker spots, so Mario Williams, who was also a causality of Houston's decision to stick with Foster, won't be missed much if at all. But the long-term effects of having up to $43.5 million wrapped up with your running back can be negative, particularly if Foster ends up having the same lifespan as most of the other running backs in the league.
Of course, having Foster for this season will give Houston the top rushing duo in football, so the immediate impact on the offense will be extremely positive (although, again, Foster would have been a Texan anyway if they had tendered or franchised him, eliminating the need for that long-term deal).
Foster will be relied on more this season in the passing game because Houston wasn't able to upgrade their outside options very much this off-season. Last season Foster ranked fifth amongst running backs with 135 defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) as a pass catcher on top of his 122 DYAR as a rusher. The unique thing about Foster is that he's skilled enough as a route runner and pass catcher that he can actually be split out wide and run moderate routes effectively, which is something we might see often this season if Gary Kubiak isn't comfortable putting his rookies into three- and four-wide sets. Foster is also very good at getting out into the flat in the screen game and following his blockers for big gains up the field. According to Pro Football Focus, Foster caught 35 passes behind the line of scrimmage and ended with 432 yards after the catch. Foster also led the league among running backs in a stat called yards per route run, which means he had the highest number of yards per passing pattern run.
Ben Tate actually had more DYAR on the ground than Foster did last season, posting 151 DYAR, which placed him not only above Foster but also above Ray Rice and just slightly behind Adrian Peterson. Tate is actually a better pure running back than Foster. Where Foster trumps Tate significantly is with his aforementioned pass catching abilities. This pairing does give Kubiak the ability to trot out some unique looking sets on offense with Foster lining up out wide and Tate lining up in the backfield. That is something I would love to see this year because it would allow for Houston to maximize the talents of both of their running backs and solve a bit of their depth issues at the receiver position.
Both Foster and Tate were incredibly dangerous big play threats last season, with 32.9% of their respective yard totals coming on rushes of 15 yards or more. They are both very explosive in the open field and put up numbers that no other running back duo came close to last season. When paired with a healthy Andre Johnson, there are few offenses that can match Houston's trio of dynamic and game changing offensive players.
Backing up Foster and Tate this season will be Justin Forsett, whom the Texans signed this off-season. Forsett had a few nondescript years in Seattle before he became a free agent this summer. He only got 46 carries last year but in his initial season with the Seahawks back in 2009, he had an impressive 5.9 yards per carry and 519 yards as Julius Jones' backup (he actually outplayed Jones comfortably), so there is some talent here. At the very least, he's a third-down back that Houston can use in passing situations to preserve the legs of Foster and Tate. If he's still got something left to give, Forsett may be able to sneak out 50 or 60 carries, slightly eclipsing Derrick Ward's total from last year, and close out games that are out hand in the fourth quarter.
Houston will likely have the most effective stable of running backs in the league this season thanks to Foster and Tate, and the combination of their dynamic rushing attack and successful offensive line scheme will go along way in helping this team get to the Super Bowl. That said, the long-term prognosis for Foster may not be as bright because of the massive deal he got this summer.
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