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Brad Barr-US PRESSWIRE
While the Houston Astros quietly continue to play above their heads in 2012, the future of their rebuilding process earns a face on June 4th. Major League Baseball‘s Draft occurs two weeks from Monday and the top selection remains a mystery. A result of their 56-106 record in 2011, Houston picks first among a pool of very good-to-great talents but devoid of a superstar. There’s no consensus Stephen Strasburg or Bryce Harper so while plenty may speculate on the Astros’ intentions, it’s just that, speculation. General Manager Jeff Luhnow can’t afford to miss a la San Diego and Matt Bush in 2004 or Pittsburgh and Bryan Bullington in 2002. For a franchise in dire need of an influx of Major League prospects, there’s tons of pressure to choose correctly.
With credit to Florida catcher Mike Zunino (.328, 12 HR, 45 RBI) and LSU starting pitcher Kevin Gausman (7-1, 3.16 ERA, 101 strikeouts in 82.2 innings), the Next Big Thing at Minute Maid Park figures to be either Georgia high school outfielder Byron Buxton or Stanford ace Mark Appel.
Buxton is a 5-tool player likely to roam centerfield for his club over the next ten to fifteen years. As a high school prospect, it’s unfair to expect him to crack the Major League roster before he’s 21 or 22. An appearance in Houston prior to that means he’s obliterated minor league pitching and the thought that there wasn’t a superstar available in this Draft was sorely mistaken. But as is always the case with 18 year-old baseball players, Buxton’s potential represents both a positive and negative. He’s widely regarded as the best talent in 2012 and were it not for the dearth of pitching in the Astros farm system, the probable pick. Buxton destroys Georgia prep pitching but it’s a long learning curve and one that could cost scouts and executives their jobs, if he can’t do the same against Double-A competition. What Jim Crane, Jeff Lunhow and the rest of the Astros front office must decide is whether Buxton is simply too tempting as a future middle-of-the order hitter to pass on.
Should they elect to do so, and that’s the direction I’ve come to think Houston will go, the Astros will select Stanford right-handed pitcher Mark Appel and pray he sprints through the minors. Appel was born in the Bayou City, currently boasts a 7-1 record, 2.72 ERA and leads the Pac 12 in strikeouts. He’s a college arm and those types are viewed as the safest selections in Major League Drafts. Appel throws three above-average pitches (fastball, change up, slider) which bodes well for a career in Minute Maid Park. Because the new collective bargaining agreement basically ended ridiculous salary demands, signability is much less of a factor than in previous years. If Luhnow and Crane believe Appel could front-line the Astros rotation in two years or less, he’s the no-brainer pick. If there are questions, perhaps it swings the pendulum back to Buxton.
Regardless, it’s a choice that the Astros are hoping results in a perennial All-Star.
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