Mark Travis plans to attend the School of Journalism and Communication at the University or Oregon in the fall of 2012. Travis was born and raised in Corpus Christi and graduated with honors from Flour Bluff High School. He says he is one of the few Lakers fans who recognizes that LeBron James is better than Kobe Bryant. Travis started writing back in 2008, when Michael Crabtree and the Texas Tech Red Raiders inspired him to start But The Game Is On Sports Network, which features websites dedicated to covering the NBA, NFL, MLB, and NHL as well as college basketball and football. Travis contributes to all sites across his network. You can read the rest of his NBA writing at The Chase-Down Block. You can follow him on Twitter @Mark_Travis.
CORPUS CHRISTI â€" In the NFL, there two common templates for successful signal callers: Efficient quarterbacks that can mix in big plays with their precision passing (Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, etc) and efficient quarterbacks who play conservatively and rely on other aspects of their team to make big plays (Alex Smith, Mark Sanchez, Seattle-era Matt Hasselbeck, etc.). Those who can make both the big and smart plays consistently are the superstars and those who simply make the smart plays over-and-over are your serviceable starters. Though you'll rarely hear him referred to as a "game manager," Matt Schaub fits into the latter category.
Alex Smith has become the poster boy for "game managers" because he doesn't take any risks and doesn't jeopardize his team's chances of winning games while not significantly enhancing them either, which is fine because San Fransisco has an elite defense and a stellar rushing attack to make the big plays for him. While Schaub may get to throw a few more deep balls than Smith, the truth is that he's a very conservative quarterback, which is exactly what Gary Kubiak wants him to be. This is also the reason why a third string rookie quarterback was able to step in off the bench and perform admirably for Houston down the stretch. Houston's offense doesn't call for their quarterback to do anything special because they know they can win games with their defense and running game. Whether or not that is a viable strategy in the air raid era of the NFL remains to be seen, but that's exactly what Houston's personnel calls for, so that's what they run.
Schaub, who is 31 years old and is entering a contract year, was clearly missed at the end of last season, and if he was healthy the Texans probably would have been able to advance further in the post-season than they did. That said, he's not exactly a player the Texans couldn't live without going forward. Imagine if T.J. Yates were a couple of seasons into his career last year instead of a wide eyed rookie. With experience in the system, an older Yates could probably give the Texans the same ceiling that they have with Schaub. If the Texans let Schaub go this off-season and replaced him with Matt Moore, who is underrated (look at the offenses he's been forced into), I honestly don't believe Houston would be considerably worse off.
This is not to say that Schaub is bad. He's had some excellent seasons with the Texans, including a near 5,000-yard campaign a couple of seasons ago. But Houston just made a huge financial commitment to Arian Foster, so their offensive focus going forward is almost certainly going to be the running game, and Schaub's iffy health makes him far from reliable. Game managing quarterbacks can be had in the open market (like Moore) or in the later rounds of the draft if you're so inclined, so replacing Schaub's skillset wouldn't be terribly hard for a front office that has proven to be shrewd.
That makes this season a very interesting one for both Schaub and Kubiak.
Schaub is in need of a defining campaign in which he proofs his worth to a team that doesn't need an elite quarterback to win. Given his veteran status and numerical production in Houston, Schaub is likely going to be seeking a hefty contract extension this off-season. If he is going to get that from Houston, I think he needs to separate himself from the pack of good-not-great quarterbacks like Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan and everyone else that is left out the Super Bowl year-after-year while Brady, Brees, Rodgers and the Mannings hog all of the trophies. I'm not saying that Schaub has to be on their level, because that's clearly not going to happen. But he does need to get a step closer to those guys than he is now.
In order to do that, Schaub is going to need to extract more value out of Houston's receiving core than we are expecting right now. Outside of Andre Johnson, who is good for another 1,000-yard season if he stays healthy, Houston doesn't have any reliable playmakers on the outside. The same problem existed in San Fransisco last season, with nobody outside of Vernon Davis making plays for Alex Smith. The difference between the 49ers and Texans in this case is that San Fransisco went out this summer and signed Randy Moss and Mario Manningham to bolster Smith's loadout. Schaub will have no such benefit this season, with two rookies currently listed as the third and fourth receivers on the depth chart. Schaub has to find a way to make those around him better after years of playing to the team's strengths.
This puts Kubiak in a rough position because, in order to put Schaub in more situations for him to prove himself, he'd have to change up a gameplan that nearly got his team to the Super Bowl last season. The big question Kubiak faces entering this season is whether or not he thinks his team had enough to win last season before they got bit by the injury bug or if he sees the writing on the wall about today's league and realizes that he needs to incorporate a higher frequency of throws this year. The positive thing is that I don't think that expanding his team's passing attack, which is currently constructed with a few consistent intermediate money plays and one or two homerun attempts per game on play-action fakes, would compromise Houston's team-wide output this season all that much. It would, in theory, reduce the amount of touches for Foster and Ben Tate, but resting two of your better players that happen to play the most injury prone position in sports a bit more often is not necessarily a bad thing during a 16-game regular season.
Kubiak could also deem offensive experimentation inappropriate and stick with the conservative passing/explosive running dynamic that worked well last year, which I would understand. Either way, I think the decision Kubiak makes will have a large impact on the future of the Texans. Houston's Super Bowl window should be open for another half decade or so but I'm not entirely sure that Schaub is the quarterback they'll need to get through that window. A failed attempt to spread things out a bit more would signify a need to make a major change at quarterback while more of the same in a conservative attack would likely only lead to more uncertainty if Houston can't make it all the way this season.
The amazing thing about this Texans team is that they are one of the two teams in football (with the 49ers being the other) that can have questions abound about their quarterback's playoff prowess and still remain contenders. In fact, I think they are more than contenders this season. I expect the Texans to make it all the way to the Super Bowl this years by riding on the shoulders of their dynamic duo in the backfield and one of the league's fiercest defenses. But when push comes to shove in the final game of the season, when they are going up against Aaron Rodgers (my pick), Brees or Manning on Super Bowl Sunday, ​I'm not sure Schaub will be able to match them. And quarterback brilliance is the one common thread that has existed between the past four Super Bowl winners.
Prediction: 12-4, AFC Champions
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